Canelo v Golovkin – Final Prediction

Phil Stevens (aka One to watch) gives us his final prediction ahead of Canelo vs Golovkin 2, and breaks down how he believes either fighter could come away with a career-defining victory.

Personally I think a lot will come down to what GGG has left.  He had a long amateur career and at 35 with his body creaking, it isn’t the best time to have a career defining bout.

I’ve suggested Canelo will repeat his tactics of their first encounter but GGG has shown he adapts to his opposition and we can expect it again.

Golovkin has talked angrily in the build-up, promising to inflict pain on his rival, making it personal, but he and trainer Abel Sanchez aren’t naive enough to walk straight into Canelo’s hands.

If Golovkin has a ‘take one to give one’ approach then he is going to have to walk through some serious firepower, variety and most importantly a faster and younger opponent.  By keeping his range and keeping his shots straight, GGG has more likelihood of not falling into traps.

Can GGG stop Canelo?

Golovkin’s one punch power is real.  Just because he failed to shift Canelo last time or was able to stop Daniel Jacobs (he scored a knockdown but couldn’t build on it) that doesn’t necessarily imply his power was exaggerated.

GGG has heavy hands and can deliver sense scrambling shots to the head from his left hook and overhand right.  To date we have no reason to think Canelo’s chin is anything other than rock solid.  On tape, I have only seen him wobbled once and that was back in 2010 v Jose Miguel Cotto, back when he was a prospect growing into his body.

The issue here isn’t what power GGG has; more can he deliver it?  I predict we see a cagey opening couple of rounds that takes off from where the first bout ended, before realisation from both corners that they need to do more.

GGG himself will be very aware of the perception that a close fight will go against him on the cards.  Canelo knows the judges may go in with the mind-set not to be overly appreciate of his work this time.  Will this have a bearing on the fight?

I think it simply has to.  So I see 2 different scenarios potentially unfolding:

1) If we see anyone dictate then I think it’s more likely to be GGG.  He may look the smaller and older man, but his strength in close is clear to see and if he can improve on the areas he fell short in last time (show a more authoritative jab and land that right hand) then he could bully Canelo, I could foresee this being his last stand.

2) Or of course GGG grows old overnight and Canelo comes of age.  Maybe Canelo decides not to sit back but rather to be the initiator, and forces GGG into areas he isn’t comfortable in.  That is less likely in my view, GGG has never been forced back consistently in his career, but you cannot write off the possibility.

I’m going to pick GGG to win a hard earned but comprehensive points decision this time.

And I expect him to show more aggression.

I saw their first meeting as a technical contest with a high level of skill.  As boxing fans, I think we all appreciated the stylistic clash for the 12 rounds.  This time I can only dream of a “Hagler-Hearns” for our generation but am realistic enough to not expect a dramatic firefight.

Either way it will make fascinating viewing and at least we are getting to see this rivalry come to a natural conclusion.  Enjoy the fight!

Let us know your final thoughts on this mouthwatering rematch here in our forum thread and be sure to check back live during the fight for more updates, analysis and debate throughout the night.